Elon Musk has a lot to gain from a second Trump term

If you’re wondering why Elon Musk suddenly decided to sink more than $130 million into supporting Donald Trump in the 2024 US election, the first answer came on Wednesday — when Musk’s net worth increased by $15 billion. Which, if you do the math, results in a return on investment of 11,538 percent.

And that’s not all that Musk and his companies are likely to get out of the election result.

First a quick recap: Musk’s endorsement of Trump was far from inevitable. Indeed, in July 2022, when he was finalizing his Twitter takeover, Musk tweeted that Trump should “hang up his hat and sail off into the sunset.” This was in response to Trump calling Musk “another goddamn artist.” After the sunset comment, Trump hit back by recounting Musk’s requests for government subsidies in his first term: “I could have said ‘get on your knees and pray,’ and he would have,” Trump wrote.

The two had clashed on and off since Musk was appointed to Trump’s advisory council in 2017, then resigned when Trump pulled the US out of the Paris climate accords. Musk’s politics appear to have drifted to the right over the years, but he initially supported Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis over Trump in the GOP primaries — to the point that he hosted DeSantis’ campaign launch in a disastrous Twitter Spaces broadcast in 2023 .

Two years after the “hell artist” feud and six months after DeSantis dropped out, Musk officially endorsed Trump. However, it took the world’s richest man a few more months to fully open the door to his wealth. His America PAC spent about $30 million in August and September, then increased that to about $130 million in total in the final months of the campaign. This includes the infamous $1 million a day voter “lottery” that Musk’s own lawyers admitted wasn’t really a lottery.

Musk began coordinating with the Trump campaign and went “dark MAGA” at his first Trump rally less than a month before the election. His X-shaped jumps in the middle of the stage led to one of the most memorable lines of the campaign, when vice-presidential candidate Tim Walz described Musk “skipping like a desperation.”

Whether Musk’s outlandish appearances actually helped Trump’s campaign is an open question, but the billionaire’s cash infusion apparently didn’t hurt. What we don’t know and may never know is what Musk and Trump discussed offstage.

We do know, however, that Musk has at least 20 reasons to seek leniency from the next administration.

The Musk-Trump axis

The tech mogul needs the president-elect because Musk’s companies face a total of “at least 20” federal investigations, according to a New York Times report. Who Trump chooses to lead the Departments of Justice, Labor and Transportation, on top of any new appointees to the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Federal Trade Commission, matters to Musk because all of those agencies are investigating violations. possible at Tesla, SpaceX. NeuraLink and Twitter/X. All four companies, not to mention Musk himself, could face hefty fines. Or investigations can be quietly dropped.

And on the positive side of the book, there is much, much more that Musk stands to gain from a second Trump administration. Not just the extension of those EV subsidies and tax credits that Musk wanted in Trump’s first term, but also numerous government contracts. Musk has won $16 billion in contracts over the past decade — the vast majority of it through SpaceX, which NASA increasingly relies on. (Trump will also be able to name a new NASA administrator.)

Roughly $3 billion of that landed in Musk’s coffers last year, so the tax pipeline from dollars to Musk is getting bigger. His Starlink satellite Internet service, which Musk recently claimed he would offer for free to Hurricane Helene victims (it turned out to be a 30-day free trial), will likely earn him billions more in contracts under Trump, according to one Washington Post the investigation.

And then there’s the still vague notion that Trump has floated, that Musk actually runs a significant portion of the federal government himself. No word yet on plans for a “Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE),” which Musk named after one of his favorite memes. Asked at Trump’s rally in Madison Square Garden how much the department could cut from the annual federal budget, Musk said $2 trillion.

Given that the government’s entire discretionary budget is only $1.7 trillion, Musk can only reach that number by cutting mandatory spending — Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, in other words. Politicians traditionally shy away from cutting these hugely popular programs. Musk, of course, is not a politician and will never have to face voters.

What should Trump fear from Musk?

Who has the upper hand in this relationship – the most powerful world leader or the richest man in the world?

Although his bravado would never allow him to say so openly, Trump has a lot to fear from Musk. If the two fall out again — a distinct possibility, given the wide array of former Trump officials who fell out with their boss in his first term — Musk has plenty of avenues for revenge.

First, Musk has full control over Trump’s prized @realdonaldtrump handle that propelled him to power in 2016. In 2021, the account was “permanently” suspended after Trump encouraged the January 6 uprising. When Musk took office, he initially said he would rely on a “content moderation board” to make the restoration decision. A month later Musk did so via a Twitter poll in which the pro-Trump side narrowly won, with 51.8% of the vote.

What Musk gives, Musk can also take away – and he has plenty of reasons to do so. Trump has been convicted and may still be convicted of 34 counts of business fraud. In a separate civil fraud case, he has been ordered to pay a now-reduced $175 million penalty. He still stands accused in multiple cases of trying to overturn the results of the 2020 election, not to mention allegations of illegally keeping classified documents at Mar-a-Lago.

Musk doesn’t even have to go so far as to remove Trump’s account again; there are many ways to keep the administration and its scandal-plagued leader in line. Algorithm X has already been modified to favor Trump. It would be child’s play to change it again, de-platforming any Republican politician or appointee who opposes Musk. Taking away his government contracts would pose little threat, given how much the government depends on them.

Musk has also said his America PAC will continue through the 2026 midterms. Unless Trump wants to face a Democratic Congress — one that likely has even more reason to impeach him at times third – the president-elect and his team will have to keep Musk on their side.

It’s still early days, and there could be many more twists and turns in this tale of two very thin billionaires. But the relationship can easily become as unbalanced as their relative fortunes. (Musk is worth $292 billion and rising, according to Forbes’ list; Trump could amass $4 billion to $8 billion in net worth depending on the value of his media company, which just wiped out all of its profits after the election.) in fact, that Musk may soon earn a new unofficial title: shadow president.